Touted by some as Saudi Arabia’s progressive reformer, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has an ominous human rights record.Since becoming in office in 2017, the kingdom’s de facto ruler has tightened his grip on power, launching a wave of detentions against perceived challengers to his rule.
Since he outmanoeuvred more senior rivals to become crown prince, MBS has received favourable coverage in international media, with a multitude of reports focused on his economic and social reforms in the conservative kingdom.
However, previous arrests and an ongoing crackdown on dissent in the kingdom, as well as the gruesome murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, has shifted the focus towards the darker side of MBS’s record.
This also includes thousands of civilian deaths in Yemen and a rapid rise of the number of executions since his ascent to power.
In 2015, Saudi Arabia intervened in the civil war in neighbouring Yemen, launching an aerial campaign targeting the Houthi rebels, who were quickly gaining territory.
Diplomats rarely admit failure, but that is precisely what the Saudi foreign minister did on February 18th at the Munich Security Conference, an annual security gabfest. The kingdom has sought to keep Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s blood-soaked dictator, a pariah.
Asked about rumours that his country may change course, though, Prince Faisal bin Farhan hinted that Mr Assad’s isolation was nearing an end. “There is a consensus growing that the status quo is not workable,” he said.
Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has spent tens of billions of dollars working to overthrow two unfriendly regimes: Assad’s, and that of the Houthis.
In the coming months, it will probably admit that both efforts have failed. This is not because the Saudis have developed an affinity for their foes. Rather it is another sign of how the kingdom, like some of its Gulf neighbours, increasingly sees the rest of the Arab world as a tiresome nuisance.
Diplomats think the kingdom could announce a rapprochement with Syria at the next Arab League summit, which is usually held in March (and this year will be hosted by the Saudis).
On the other hand, Operation Decisive Storm, as it was called, has dragged on for eight indecisive years and plunged Yemen into humanitarian crisis. An estimated 19m Yemenis need food aid to survive; three-quarters of the people live below the poverty line.
It has been costly for the Saudis, too. There are no official figures, but the kingdom has spent tens of billions of dollars on the war. Some put the tab as high as $1bn a week in periods of the heaviest fighting. The Saudis are negotiating a deal that would allow them to withdraw.
It could be signed in the coming months—perhaps in the holy city of Mecca around the Ramadan holiday, which starts this year in late March.
