The glossy narrative of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has long relied on slick promotional campaigns and extravagant promises of economic diversification and modernisation. But the Kingdom’s latest budget figures have ripped through that façade, revealing a widening fiscal deficit, declining oil revenues, and the unsustainable weight of vanity megaprojects that are draining public finances.
According to the latest budget report, Saudi Arabia faces a sharp drop in oil revenue and a growing budget deficit, despite years of promises that the country would break free from its dependence on fossil fuels. The result is a staggering contradiction: while the government boasts of transformation and prosperity, the economic foundations beneath it are growing weaker by the quarter.
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An Oil-Dependent Economy in Denial
Despite nearly a decade of Vision 2030 branding, oil remains the lifeline of Saudi Arabia’s economy. The fall in crude prices has translated directly into a plunge in state revenue, making it clear that the promised “diversification” remains more rhetoric than reality.
Public spending continues to soar, driven largely by entertainment spectacles, sporting events, and futuristic cities like NEOM—projects that generate headlines but little economic return. In the meantime, the country’s sovereign reserves are steadily eroded, and borrowing becomes the default tool for covering the deficit.
Mega Projects, Micro Returns
The financial haemorrhage caused by projects like NEOM, Qiddiya, and the Red Sea Development is no longer a secret. These initiatives have yet to yield significant economic output, and their funding continues to come not from profits or investments but from public debt and dwindling reserves.
The government claims these developments will drive long-term growth, but with no clear ROI in sight and persistent fiscal shortfalls, they are more accurately described as economic liabilities. These are not engines of diversification; they are monuments to fiscal recklessness.
Unsustainable Spending Amid Mounting Pressures
While millions are poured into global sports sponsorships, foreign entertainment deals, and lavish state events, ordinary Saudis face increasing living costs, regressive taxes, and deteriorating public services. Economic hardship is growing while public funds are misallocated to enhance the image of the Crown Prince on the international stage.
At the same time, debt levels continue to climb, with Saudi Arabia increasingly reliant on domestic and international borrowing to plug holes in its budget. With each bond issued and loan secured, future generations are further burdened to support an unsustainable present.
A Political Reckoning on the Horizon
The current budget crisis isn’t just a financial problem—it’s a political one. Economic instability, when combined with social frustration and restricted civil liberties, can trigger broader unrest. Saudi Arabia’s internal stability is being wagered on the hope that a polished image can substitute for sustainable policy.
The illusions of Vision 2030 are no longer being tested by sceptics alone. They are being dismantled by data: shrinking revenue, ballooning deficits, and mounting debt. These are not signs of transformation—they are symptoms of decline.
Unless there is a radical shift in how the Kingdom manages its economy—away from spectacle and toward substance—the collapse of the Vision will not just be fiscal. It will be political.
